Foreign investors have infused nearly Rs 8,500 crore in the country's equity markets last week, after a phase of heavy outflows earlier in the month, supported by renewed investor confidence, resilient domestic economy and relative insulation from global trade disruptions. During the holiday-truncated week ended April 18, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) made a net investment of Rs 8,472 crore in equities.
The rupee has remained largely stable against the US greenback in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59 per cent so far. However, it has considerably weakened against the euro and pound. The local currency has depreciated by 1.6 per cent against the euro and 5.6 per cent against the pound, as both currencies strengthened against the dollar during this period.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
From the Sensex pack, Zomato jumped over 7 per cent. ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank and State Bank of India were among the gainers. However, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra and Reliance Industries were the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Nestle, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Power Grid and Zomato were among the gainers. However, Infosys, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan and Bajaj Finserv were among the laggards.
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, Bajaj Finserv, Mahindra & Mahindra, Zomato, Hindustan Unilever, Power Grid, Axis Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards. On the other hand, Sun Pharmaceuticals, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Maruti Suzuki India, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Titan were the gainers.
'The pace of gold's ascent is striking, with prices rising from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz in just 36 days -- far quicker than the historical average of 1,036 days taken to achieve similar $500/oz gains.'
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
'The frenzy for gold is primarily due to the uncertainty surrounding the tariff war.'
The rupee depreciated 31 paise to an all-time low of 80.15 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday tracking the strength of the American currency and firm crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 80.10 against the dollar, then lost ground to quote at 80.15, registering a fall of 31 paise from the last close. On Friday, the rupee closed at 79.84 against the dollar.
In an eventful week ahead, stock market investors will take cues from major events like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the upcoming Union Budget and Q3 earnings, analysts said.
Among Sensex firms, Tata Steel, BEL, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and Larsen & Toubro were the major gainers. However, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
Stock market participants would track global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in a holiday-shortened week ahead, amid lack of any major domestic trigger in sight, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Christmas.
Foreign investors have withdrawn Rs 22,194 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by expectations of a weak earnings season, a steady rise in the US dollar, and concerns over tariff war during Donald Trump's presidency. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
The US Fed interest rate decision, global trends, tariff-related developments and trading activity of foreign investors will drive the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Among macroeconomic data announcement, WPI inflation for February is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
Foreign investors have pulled out Rs 44,396 crore from Indian equities this month, driven by strength of the dollar, rising bond yields in the US, and expectations of a weak earnings season. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the month of December, data with the depositories showed.
The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee moderated in December to 107.20 after hitting a peak of 108.14 in November, latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed. The REER was 103.66 in January 2024. The rupee depreciated around 3 per cent against the dollar in 2024.
'We continue to view India as a standout within EM.'
From the Sensex constituents, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Adani Ports, Eternal, Bajaj Finserv, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and Axis Bank were among the major gainers. In contrast, Trent, State Bank of India, Tech Mahindra, Maruti and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the laggards.
The rupee plunged 61 paise to decline below the 83-mark for the first time against the US dollar on Wednesday amid unabated foreign capital outflows and a strong dollar in the overseas markets.
Foreign investors offloaded Indian equities worth nearly Rs 21,000 crore in the first half of August, pressured by US-India trade tensions, lacklustre first-quarter corporate earnings, and a weakening rupee.
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 4,285 crore from Indian equities in the first three trading days of the month driven by apprehensions ahead of the third-quarter earnings season and high valuations of domestic stocks. This came following an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
A deep dive into Trump's new policy and what it means for Indian professionals and companies.
From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
'Expect FPIs to continue selling for several months until the rupee stabilises.'
Investors lost Rs 24.69 lakh crore in market valuation in the last four days of severe drubbing in the equity market. Spike in global crude prices, unabated foreign fund outflows, a strong US jobs data diminishing early rate cut expectations, and the rupee logging its steepest single-day fall in nearly two years dampened investors' sentiment.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
Foreign investors withdrew Rs 10,355 crore from the country's equity markets in the last four trading sessions this month due to sweeping tariffs imposed by the US on most nations, including India. The outflow occurred after a net investment of Rs 30,927 crore in the six trading sessions from March 21 to March 28. This infusion helped reduce the overall outflow for March to Rs 3,973 crore, according to data from the depositories.
The rupee rose by 12 paise to close at 79.78 against the US dollar on Monday due to a weak dollar in overseas markets and an improved appetite for riskier assets. Stronger regional currencies also supported the rupee sentiment ahead of the US Fed policy decision on Wednesday. Weak domestic equities and FII outflows, however, capped sharp gains. At the inter-bank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.86 against the greenback and moved in a range of 79.70 to 79.87 in the day trade.
After two weeks of buying, FPIs turned net sellers in Indian equities this week, with a net withdrawal of Rs 976 crore amid a strengthening US dollar and steady rise in US 10-year bond yields, impacting investor sentiment. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) began the week on a positive note, investing Rs 3,126 crore in equities during the first two trading sessions (December 16-20).
The HDFC duo was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, shedding nearly 4 per cent, followed by PowerGrid, Tech Mahindra, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Kotak Bank, Asian Paints, Infosys and Reliance Industries. NSE Nifty slumped 154.40 points to 14,690.70.
If there was one event that made the month of August stand out, it was a strengthening of the dollar index to levels last seen only 20 years ago, as the Federal Reserve dispelled all doubts about its intention to continue raising interest rates. Predictably, most currencies suffered against the US unit, with the bulk of the losers belonging to the emerging markets pack. Amid the volatility, the rupee, however, has displayed significant resilience and fared much better than most of its peer currencies.
From the Sensex pack, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever, Bharat Electronics and Sun Pharma were among the major gainers. In contrast, Trent, Eternal, Axis Bank and Titan were among the laggards.
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
The rupee appreciated 6 paise to 78.27 against the US dollar in opening trade on Monday as heavy buying in domestic equities and weakness in the greenback strengthened investor sentiment. However, elevated crude prices and persistent foreign fund outflows restricted the rupee's gain, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened sharply up at 78.24 against the US dollar, then inched lower to quote 78.27, registering a gain of 6 paise over the last close.
